Weather Forecast Calls for a Hot 2011

Going green — By on January 28, 2011 at 6:19 am

Sure, the East Coast has been hit especially hard with snowstorms this winter.  But be prepared.  The weather forecast calls for a hot 2011.  In fact, last year tied for the hottest year on record, the result of a long-term warming trend which will continue, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

teachers factfile drought 300x204 Weather Forecast Calls for a Hot 2011

We've experienced the hottest years on record recently

Whether you chalk it up to global warming or merely write it off as “natural fluctuations” in climate, you cannot deny that the first 10 years of this century were the hottest decade since we started keeping records in the 19th century.

WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud commented at a news conference that the organization believes greenhouse gas emissions are to blame:

“The main signal is that the warming trend continues and is being strengthened year after year.”

“The trend, unfortunately, will continue for a number of years but the amplitude will depend on the amount of greenhouse gases released.  It will depend on action taken to minimize the release of greenhouse gases.”

The WMO stated that this new evidence and the projections for a hot 2011 should convince nay-sayers about the reality of climate change.

But will it really?

Its important to keep in mind that overall rising temperatures worldwide impact weather patterns globally.  That means snowstorms could be more severe and floods more devastating.  As we’ve seen recently.

climate change 1 Weather Forecast Calls for a Hot 2011

Warming temperatures will change weather patterns

Perhaps more alarming is the fact that temperatures are about 0.8 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial times and, if we reach the threshold of a 2 degree rise, dangerous climate change impacts of heatwaves and droughts could wreak havoc.

WMO noted that:

Over the 10 years from 2001 to 2010, global temperatures have averaged 0.45 degrees Celsius (0.83 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 1961-1990 average and are the highest ever recorded for a 10-year period since climate records began.

The WMO gathers climate data from land-based weather and climate stations, ships, buoys and satellites.  It notes that actions to address global warming have been negatively impacted by the economic financial crisis.

Hopefully, new data like the hot weather forecast for 2011 will start to galvanize efforts to cut CO2 emissions and slow the rising temperatures.

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5 Comments

  1. Mark says:

    Hey, I don’t exactly see you shoveling 5 feet of snow off your driveway either.

  2. Nicole says:

    110-115 here in tucson and phoenix is hot enough. throw in much more and people start dying

  3. Sundance says:

    I read the WMO press release. Unfortunately when I go to the official 2011 forecast at the WMO site they are not predicting a hot 2011. In fact they say the La Nina effect will continue well into 2011. As of January 25 which is the latest WMO update, satellite readings show temperatures in the lower Troposphere to be .97F degrees lower than last year.

    The following chart is provided by climate scientist Ole Humlum from the University of Oslo. As you can see Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) is increasing again as CO2 is rising. This can’t happen if back-radiation is increasing from increased CO2.

    http://climate4you.com/images/OLR%20versus%20CO2%20Global.gif

    Ocean heat content since 2003 (the year Argo buoys were deployed) has seen a slight drop in joules. This can not be if back-radiation from increased CO2 is occurring and increasing the surface absorption in Watt per Meter Squared (Wm*2).

    A new paper from scientists in India was submitted by the Indian Minister of Environment to the IPCC showing that 40% of warming has been attributed to CO2 in error, and in fact should have been attributed to cosmic rays.

    Sea level rise according to the Aqua satellite has seen a drop from 3.2mm/year to 1.44mm/year beginning in 2006 which translates to 6.5 inches per century.

    CO2 doubling yields 1C degree increase in a lab. Climate models have assumed positive feedbacks which according to the IPCC push that figure to 3.0C per doubling. The .8C figure you refer to in your article has occurred with a more than 50% (CO2 is based on a logarithmic scale) increase to a doubling of CO2 which if it continues as it has for the last 160 years leads to 1.5C degrees for a doubling of CO2. The forecast for the next 20+ years starting in 2013 or 2014 is for cold similar to a Dalton Minimum which would wipe out the .8C increase we’ve seen in the last 160 years. If there is little or no growth in GMST through 2012 the climate models used by the WMO will be falsified at the 95% level. While CO2 is a factor in warming it may not turn out to be a big factor. I think behind the scenes scientists are concerned and that is why you are seeing yet again another attempt to relabel the issue to energy independence and “sputnik” moments to win the future in clean energy.

  4. NikFromNYC says:

    “you cannot deny that the first 10 years of this century were the hottest decade since we started keeping records in the 19th century”

    So what?! A natural warming trend continues. Records did not start in the 19th century. They started in 1660, the 17th century. Lots of them. None of them show any sign that recent warming represents any change in trend whatsoever. I plotted them from the original data in postcard format here:

    http://i49.tinypic.com/rc93fa.jpg

    Not even the data since the 19th century shows *any* sign of an uptick in warming trend before/after the big surge in CO2 in the 1940s. In fact they show cooling after that era!

    The NOAA’s own web site has a graph that shows how linear the trend is instead of being an increasing one:

    http://i49.tinypic.com/2mpg0tz.jpg

    Why do articles like this keep popping up in the face of actual thermometer records that show what a dodge it really is to keep quoting “hottest decade on record” while failing to point out that a natural warming trend is quite expected as more and more ice melts for the simple reason that the Ice Age is over? Get it? Glaciers melting. Ice age glaciers. Melting. Less ice. Less ice in the system. Somewhat higher temperature each decade. Duh.

  5. nikki says:

    So, since its the middle of summer 2011 and VERY hot,.well over 100 for a while, what do you all have to say now? Definately a lot hotter than last year and past years at that.

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